I guess I have a vested interest in the student shortage, it directly affects my career. I feel safe being at the fourth largest private university in Japan, so it's not going under anytime soon. But the school that I got my start at, Senzoku Gaukuen's 2 year English program, non longer exists. I think junior colleges and 2 year schools are in the most in danger of closing. I also know that schools are actively trying to get more foriegn studnets to attend schools. The gvoernement has opened the first English language graduate school up north, with the hope of attracting foreign students. Here's an article from The Daily Yomiuri (Englsih version):
Universities fear shortage of students
Yomiuri Shimbun
The nation's low birthrate means universities and junior colleges will face an enrollment crisis earlier than expected, with the number of places at universities and junior colleges expected to equal or exceed the total number of applicants from fiscal 2007--two years earlier than in previous forecasts by the Education, Science and Technology Ministry.
According to a report on such estimates submitted Friday to the Central Council of Education, while the percentage of students going to universities and junior colleges has leveled off, private universities and junior colleges have increased enrollment quotas, raising the possibility of a 100 percent acceptance rate for university applicants.
The rate is likely theoretical, however, since most applicants will seek to go to popular universities and junior colleges, leaving less popular higher education institutes facing shortfalls in students numbers and the consequent financial crises.
The projected 100 percent acceptance rate first drew attention in 1997 when the then Education Ministry submitted a report to the then University Council.
The report predicted that, with an increase in the percentage of students seeking higher education offset by a falling birthrate, the number of applicants would fall to match the 707,000 places at universities and junior colleges in the 2009 academic year.
However, the number of students going to universities and junior colleges peaked at 49.1 percent of all high school graduates in academic years 1999 and 2000.
The decline since then calls into question the 1997 estimates, which were based on the assumption that the proportion of new high school graduates seeking to enter higher education would exceed 60 percent in academic year 2006.
Meanwhile, private universities have increased their intake quotas from about 290,000 in 1989 to about 420,000 last year.
Private educational institutions, which are reluctant to lower their intake quotas in line with the low birthrate, are also faced with unexpected competition from companies that are entering the education field.
In academic year 2003, 718,000 of 854,000 applicants for universities and colleges were accepted.
Based on these numbers, the ministry estimated that 57.5 percent of high school graduates, or 654,000 students, would seek to enter higher education in academic year 2007.
Including those taking the entrance examination again after failing in previous years, the total forecast number of applicants that academic year would be 699,000--about the same as the total number of places at universities and colleges.
Comments